Abstract. The field of Psychohistory is an ancient science.
Well over a millennium has passed since Hari Seldon first used it to set
the Galaxy on the path towards the civilization we have today; were it not
so, we would only now be enteri ng the second of thirty millennia of
darkness and savagery, yet here we stand with a new Galactic Empire,
greater and stronger than the first. We still do not really know much
about it; those who have mastered it keep its secrets from the public,
and rightly so, for we must never be allowed to skew the
predictions of psychohistory by using foreknowledge of its probabilities.
I propose to explore briefly the psychological aspect of this great field,
passing over the forbidden knowledge of the math ematics (the Seldon
Functions) involved. Note that the Seldon Functions are the heart of
Psychohistory, and the two terms may be used interchangeably. In essence,
I seek to explain why the Seldon Functions work, not how
they work.
PSYCHOHISTORY---...Gaal Dornick, using nonmathematical
concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which
deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and
economic stimuli...
...Implicit in all these definitions is the
assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently
large for valid statistical treatment. The necessary size of such a
conglomerate may be determined by Seldon's First Theorem which... A
further necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself
unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly
random...
The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the
development of the Seldon Functions which exhibit properties congruent to
those of such social and economic forces as...
"Psycho-history was the quintessence of sociology; it was the science of human behavior reduced to mathematical equations."
- Isaac Asimov
In order for the statistical treatment to be valid, the sample must be randomly generated. In the gas example, if the temperature were lowered close to absolute zero, the individual motions of the molecules would slow and become non-random; it may even convert to a liquid or solid. The motion of the particles is constrained by the decrease in temperature, and becomes more ordered, less chaotic. If this is the case, then the Gas Laws no longer apply. Similarly, if the human population becomes aware of the psychohistorical analysis and the predictions made, then its actions are no longer random, and the Seldon Functions no longer apply. The conglomerate will act with knowledge of psychohistory in mind, and this knowledge will act as a constraint on th e behavior - the human population will become more ordered, less chaotic, and therefore the prediction given by the Seldon Functions become useless.
Random reactions, then, are of paramount importance. This will give us the 'Gaussian' curve of probability so well-known in mathematics. Psychohistoric predictions tell us what percentage one event has of occurring out of the total possible events, or how much of the total area under the curve corresponds to each possibility. The statistical terms 'mean' and 'mode' do not exactly apply, since we are not dealing with numbers but rather probabilities of courses of action. The 'mode' may be taken in thi s context to be the event with the greatest probability, and the 'mean' then is the course(s) of action with probability closest to 50 %.
A way to model the operation of the Seldon Functions is to use the concept of correlational coefficients, another statistical technique. Depending on the magnitude of a correlation and the direction (positive or negative) between different socio- economic factors, and taking into account the probabilities of various events, the psycho-historian deduces the probabilities of a given prediction. By using factor analysis to organize economic and social phenomena with high correlation into larg er phenomena, and looking at the relationships between these new levels of analysis, a glimpse of the underlying structure reveals itself at the new level. For example, trade between certain worlds may have a certain correlation, and combining the correl ation between all the worlds in a given sector may give you insight into how the sectors of the galaxy interact via trade. Rescaling again, you may then find some kind of relation between quadrants, and finally the galactic situation may be described. F actor analysis is especially useful for this kind of upward scaling. The correlation coefficients are normalized so that a perfect correlation has a magnitude |1| (extremely rare, as you might expect), so as to simplify calculations.
Groups also influence decision-making processes. For example, group polarization is the strong tendency for groups to assume more extreme positions on issues the members agree on following discussion. For example, in political parties, extreme c onservative or liberal platforms tend to be supported, despite members who are relatively moderate. The phenomenon of groupthink is another example; groups under high stress may be so committed to reaching a consensus that members may suspend thei r critical judgement, to achieve an illusion of unaniminity. For example, many disastrous policy decisions have been implemented by various corporate boards and government agencies, under pressure to produce results (by stockholders, citizens, etc.).
Finally, the effect of de-individuation is not to be ignored. Immersed in a mob, people gain a sense of anonymity, and members may as a result engage in behavior not acceptable as individual behavior. Heightened emotional arousal of the group is the usual case, and the group usually has some focus of attention, as well as a common bond of some sort. This effect is best-known at the University of Trantor, where every few decades there is a major incident at the athletic events involving crowds o f fans 'rushing' the field in jubilation after a victory. The result of these mass stampedes inevitably results in injury, critical in some cases. On larger scales, war is an excellent example. Alliances between groups of worlds may continue a war desp ite the obvious negative consequences involved, and entire planetary populations may attempt a revolt against the local center of government in response to some slight, risking Imperial retribution for their planet. This effect is actually one of the mos t helpful human tendencies ever discovered, in regard to psychohistory, for it basically eliminates thousands, millions, or billions of unpredictable factors (i.e. individuals) and replace them with a single entity, with easily predictable behavior respon ses to prevailing conditions. This effect is of enormous importance in understanding why psychohistory works.
The effect of group influences is easily generalized to psychohistory. Groups tend to be prevalent in human society, especially in leadership roles. Every major government is led by a small group, and every intergalactic organization (i.e. the Traders) has their own 'Board of Directors' in charge. The effects discussed above apply to these relatively small groups, yet the consequences may be far-reaching. As a result, these ideas provide an impetus to describe large-scale events in terms of much smal ler variables. Psychohistory makes use of this. For example, it was certainly disaster for the aging First Empire to attempt to attack the Foundation, but the attempt was made anyway (the influence of groupthink seems likely) despite the Foundation's su perior resources and the backing of the Seldon Plan. Social facilitation and loafing may be taken into account in terms of alliances and agreements, while group polarization is useful in keeping track of poilitical upheavals. Finally, de-individuation i s a kind of behavior-averager that simplifies calculations and reduces variables, or "eliminates infinities" in mathematicians' jargon. It is obvious that group dynamics are crucial in understanding psychohistory.
The basic motivations behind all human behavior seem clear; food, water, warmth, and other things necessary to biological survival are obviously the highest priority, as is the species' innate sex drive which serves to perpetuate our race. Most theories about human behavior seek to express behavior in terms of those basic needs. However, there are more than just biological survival needs at stake; there are other needs for a human being that result from the fact that we are a sentient species. An anci ent theory called Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs describes a way of catalouging the needs of a person in terms of importance, which is useful in attempting to build a need-based model of behavior.
This theory distinguishes between deficiency needs, for physical and social survival, and growth needs, which motivate the person to develop their full potential as a human being in an enlightened civilization. The growth needs can not be attended to until the deficiency needs have been satisfied. Interestingly, these concepts may be applied to entire planets, as individual worlds pursue their own social, economic, political, and technological agendas. The main impact of this is that hu man behavior may be expressed in terms of need fulfillment a substantial fraction of the time. The growth needs, especially, which include beauty, justice, understanding, knowledge, and ambition, are responsible for the majority of these behaviors, since they are the most unpredictable. Every single person needs food and drink, but two different people will have completely different levels of growth needs and so their behavior will be different.
Another biological factor may be our evolutionary heredity. It is generally agreed that humanity must have originally evolved on a single world, over millions or billions of years at the very least. There is evidence that genetic factors, especially th ose that tend to serve evolutionary purposes (like mate selection) affect behavior. Females on hundreds of different worlds all had certain preferences in choosing a mate, mostly related to ability of the male to help ensure survival and provide material ly for the family, while men tended to focus on physical attributes, especially those related to child-bearing ability. These preferences would tend to promote likelihood of healthy children in a positive environment.
These aspects of our humanity affect individual behaviors exclusively, and therefore are no help for psychohistory. However, it is due in part to these factors that we as a race are who we are, and that is why the Seldon Functions work for us exclusivel y. It is possible that these instincts go even deeper, that there is a physical source of behavior 'hard-wired' into our nervous systems, yet even millenia of civilization have not been able to uncover much about that subject. If this is the case, then there is a definite common denominator to human behavior that will simplify to some extent the psychohistorical calculations.
A final possible source of biological motives for behavior may have to do with the early pre-history of our race. Theories include the herd instinct/ survival in numbers concept, which postulates proto-humanoids living together and working together in l arge groups so as to increase chances of survival. This would certainly help explain the tendency towards large and incredibly dense population centers so prevalent in human history, and explain why group dynamics work the wa they do. There may be othe r similar instincts that still remain from our race's infancy as well, with effects upon our behavior that we have not yet noticed (or which we take for granted).
Biology seems to be the major explanation of why we as a race are susceptible to things like the Seldon Functions. The cultural effect on sex alone is staggering (an example is the fashion, popular music, and health food industries on every world)!
Speech to assembled of The 763rd Annual Terminus Psychology And Sociology Convention, by Dr. Freu Dian of The Anacreon University of Sciences, 1, 1050 Foundation Era (13118 Galactic Era).